The Dutch decision to raise gambling taxes over a two-year period has resulted in far lower fiscal benefits than policymakers expected, according to a joint assessment by the Ministry of Finance and national gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).
The report concludes that the goal of generating large additional public revenues through higher tax rates has not been achieved, with gains falling short of projections despite successive rate increases.
Tax changes performed worse than expected
Dutch Government implementing a two-stage tax increaseraising interest rates from 30.5% to 34.2% in early 2025, followed by a further increase to 37.8% from January 2026.
Initial projections indicated that these adjustments would generate an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. The actual results were much lower, with only around €2 million in additional revenue recorded in 2025 and a revised estimate of €57 million for 2026 compared to 2024 levels.
Overall gambling tax revenues reached €1.036 billion in 2025, only slightly above the €1.034 billion in the previous year, despite the higher rate structure.
Authorities attribute this gap primarily to a shrinking tax base. The report notes that the decline in taxable activity offset the impact of higher rates, although it also acknowledges that isolating the impact of tax policy from broader market changes is not entirely possible.
The analysis attributes the weaker-than-expected performance to a combination of regulatory and structural changes affecting the sector. This includes stricter consumer protection measures, stricter advertising and sponsorship limits, and increased oversight of licensed operators.
New rules introduced at the end of 2024 limit monthly net deposits, set at €300 for young adult players and €700 for older players. Additional restrictions on advertising are also being introduced in stages, including a ban on sports sponsorship and television-related promotional activities.
The report too highlighting the waning impact of post-event sporting activityas well as wider uncertainty caused by ongoing regulatory adjustments, as factors contributing to reduced gambling turnover.
These developments collectively reduce the taxable base on which gambling duties are calculated, thereby limiting the expected fiscal improvements from higher rates.
Pressure on land-based operators
According to NEXT.io, the sector is land-based has experienced significant strain over the period under review. Data from KSA shows visits to Holland Casino gaming rooms and locations fell by around 11% year-on-year between the start of 2025 and the start of 2026.
Some operators have reduced physical activity or closed locations, and some have cited rising taxes as a contributing factor. However, the report notes that other long-standing pressures have affected the sector, including post-pandemic recovery challenges, self-exclusion mechanisms, competition from online gambling, and rising operational costs.
Because of these overlapping factors, the assessment says so venue closures or declines in attendance are unlikely to be caused solely by tax increases.
The impact of a higher tax burden is also reflected in reduced financial contributions from state-linked gambling organizations. Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij both reported a decline in profitability associated with increased levels of taxation.
These reductions partially offset the benefits of higher tax rates, limiting the net benefit to public finances. The report further suggests that increased gambling duties may have a secondary impact on corporate tax receipts, dividends and other state revenue streams.
As a result, the overall fiscal benefits of this policy change are thought to be lower than the headline gambling tax figures.
The online market in general is still stable
Despite concerns raised by industry players, the regulated online gambling sector has not shown any significant contraction. Gross gaming revenues in the online segment remained relatively stable, while the number of licensed operators continued to grow.
However, the report notes that concurrent regulatory developments make it difficult to isolate the specific impact of taxation on online performance. Advertising restrictions, affordability checks and broader compliance requirements also impact market conditions.
These findings are expected to intensify the debate regarding the effectiveness of higher taxation as a policy tool in regulated gambling markets. Industry groups argue that tax increases risk reducing legal market activity and encouraging unlicensed operators, while weakening contributions to public funding streams.
Some operators and trade bodies have also raised concerns that increasing fiscal pressures could accelerate changes in consumer behavior and further reduce taxable activity over time.
The government has signaled additional policy measures, including tighter advertising controls, as part of its broader regulatory direction, indicating ongoing adjustments to the framework governing the sector.
